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Do Forecasters Know the Slope of the Phillips Curve?

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Author: Fisher, David Thomas
Advisor: Coibion, Olivier
Committee Members: Schreiber, Till; Boschen, John
Issued Date: 7/17/2012
Subjects: Macroeconomics
Phillips curve
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10288/16769
Description: Despite the fact that professional forecasters have significant resources to observe the economy and that the Phillips Curve has been observed and recognized in nearly all literature and economic models, the Survey of Professional Forecasters has shown a consistent under- recognition of the Phillips Curve's effects. This effect is observed across forecast horizons and in many other inflation forecasts, including the Livingston survey, Michigan Survey of Consumers, and the Federal Reserve Board's Greenbook forecast. By examining changes in the mis- estimation of the slope of the Phillips Curve over time, we can observe changes in macroeconomic thought, as well as in the case of Greenbook forecasts explain some policy decisions of the Fed.
Degree: Bachelors of Arts in Economics


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